New Hampshire 2008

So Nick’s predictions were busted wide open. I really didn’t think things would stack up anywhere near the way they did. At the start of the day I was thinking something along these lines:

Democrats:

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

Republicans:

1. Romney
2. Giuliani
3. McCain
4. Huckabee

Starting with the Democrats, I never really saw Edwards as a contender against Obama and Clinton. I don’t know what it it about him, but the other two just seem to exude a stronger sense of leadership that people can really grasp and believe in. And I really did think Obama would have another significant win over Clinton and if not a win, only Clinton by a small margin. I think there are a lot of people that remember the former Clinton and are wary to revisit the family in the White House. But more than that Obama seems like that candidate that everyone wants, a candidate some people would even cross party lines for. He’s running on a campaign of a change, and it has seemed people believed he could bring the change they were looking for. It’s no secret that people are ready for a change from Bush, and I think that has fueled a desire for a “real” candidate and not just another politician. Which is definitely something Obama exudes and something that hadn’t been seen in Clinton until her recent, and very uncharacteristic, show of emotion.

Now the Republicans and this one was tougher. I was always skeptical of Huckabee’s win in Iowa, and that’s not to say I thought Romney would come out on top in either race, but just that I didn’t think it was going to be Huckabee in Iowa, let alone New Hampshire. In the Democratic campaign, it’s seem to have been a two candidate race for a while. But very much to the contrary in the Republican race, there isn’t close to feeling of who are the Big Two or Big Three. Not long ago I was sure Guiliani would be more of a factor farther in, and while I didn’t think he was done by any means I thought McCain’s standing would more resemble Edwards standing on the Democratic side. I wasn’t sure where they were in the top 3, I just thought I knew who the top 3 were.

So after Iowa and New Hampshire it seems that the Democratic race is now a two candidate contest and I think the Republican race is really shaken up. I still think that when it’s all said and done, people on both sides of the aisle can get behind Obama and his campaign; that people are ready for a change, and part of that change is away from the normal politics which Clinton often time seems to embody. As for the Republican race, I’m not willing to count anyone out. While I think Guiliani may be too liberal for the majority of the Republican party, I also think that former ministers may not quite be what people are looking for. That really opens it up for McCain to step into the gap and balance each side out, emerging as a front runner which is exactly that I think we saw happen.

This is one of the first times I’ve had such an interest in all this so early on. I was interested at election time in ‘04 and following all the drama in ‘00, but never at a primary level. Not to mention having recently been hooked on West Wing and the finale season following a candidate on the campaign trail, it’s been really interesting seeing this process and places you watched in fiction play out in real life. It’s going to be an exciting year.